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Despite a half-hearted post-Budget “higher-spending, higher-inflation” narrative, bond yields were “sharply unchanged, to quote the cliché”, says Pendal’s head of government bonds, Tim Hext.
“I think the RBA will see the Budget for what it is: a mixed bag of measures that will leave them hopeful of further inflation relief, but wary of whether the 2-3% target band can be achieved and sustained.”
Some Budget hawks are calling for higher rates to combat inflation they expect from new spending measures and future deficits based on conservative commodity price forecasts, Tim says.
“My view is we are sufficiently past the pandemic that supply chains can handle a modest rise in consumer spending without stoking inflation.”
A number of direct Budget measures – especially the $300 electricity subsidies – should help the CPI, Tim says.
Federal treasury is forecasting inflation of 2.75% for 2024-25, while Tim expects the RBA to revise its forecast down from 3.2% to around 3%.
In a short analysis piece, Tim goes into more detail and covers the impact on bond issuance.
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to Pendal’s head of equities CRISPIN MURRAY. Reported by portfolio specialist Chris Adams
Perpetual and Pendal have been named as finalists in the 2024 Money Management / Lonsec Fund Manager of the Year awards.
In particular, Pendal has been recognised in three categories:
Stocks in Thailand have disappointed lately for a variety of reasons.
Known as an export base for autos – especially trucks – Thailand has suffered from the advent of electric vehicles.
Tourism – including medical tourism – was upended by Covid and still hasn’t fully recovered. Meanwhile, political uncertainty hasn’t helped.
“Demographically challenged with a comparatively smaller workforce and an ageing population, Thailand faces severe competition from other ASEAN countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia,” says Pendal’s Asian shares PM Samir Mehta.
Samir doesn’t own Thai stocks right now. But cheap valuations prompted him to fly in recently to meet with Thai companies on his watch list.
Thiland is largely a case of “watch and wait” right now, says Samir.
In a new article, he offers a quick overview of the case for investment in Thailand.
Sustainable investor Regnan continues to strongly believe that including ESG criteria in the investing process provides information to make better investment decisions.
The challenge is, the more it evolves, the more complicated it becomes for investors trying to judge the effect of these criteria on their investments.
In a new article, Regnan senior ESG and impact analyst Murray Ackman outlines the three big questions facing investors:
While there is progress in solving these chellenges, these questions still require deep expertise.
Advisers also need to be able to help clients work out their own ESG needs.
July 26, 2023
Watch as Sam meets a mum rebuilding her life thanks to responsible investing.
Watch videoWe actively manage investments in Australian and international equities, Australian and international fixed interest, listed property and alternatives.
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